LTCG Tax Removal Is on the Table. Here Is What It Could Mean for Orbis, ASK and HDFC Securities

The Finance Minister has said the government will hear views on scrapping long-term capital gains tax on equities. Nothing has been decided. But if it happens, the companies that run India's capital markets—custodians, fund managers and brokers—stand closest to the gains. Three of them trade in the unlisted market.

On October 13, 2026, speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government would be keen to hear views on removing long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax during the Budget consultations. She did not announce a removal and said it was too early to say what the Budget would contain. She called the debate healthy, and said it also covers securities transaction tax (STT) and whether different asset classes should be taxed alike.

Her comments came a day after SBI Research, in its Ecowrap report of October 12, urged the government to abolish LTCG tax on equities and lengthen the holding period to two or three years. Its aim is to "anchor hot money flows into the equity segment".

This article explains what is actually on the table, why capital-market businesses would benefit most, and how the three unlisted names in that group, Orbis Financial, ASK Investment Managers and HDFC Securities, are priced today.

What SBI Research proposed, and why now

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been selling Indian equities hard. According to the SBI report:

• FPIs pulled ₹44,166 crore out of Indian equities in October up to the date of the report.
• That takes 2026's outflows to ₹3.04 lakh crore, against ₹1.66 lakh crore in all of 2025.
• The reasons it gives are high crude oil prices, a strong US dollar, higher US bond yields, and the AI-led rally in North Asian markets, which is drawing foreign money away.

The selling has also weighed on the rupee, which we covered in ₹97 and a Rate Hike. SBI's argument is that a zero LTCG rate, in exchange for a longer holding period, would reward foreign money for staying put rather than leaving at the first sign of stress.

How equity gains are taxed today

India has had a zero LTCG rate on listed shares before. From 2004 to 2018, long-term gains on shares sold on an exchange were tax-free, with STT collected on each trade instead. The 2018 Budget brought LTCG back at 10% on gains above ₹1 lakh. In July 2024, the rate went up to 12.5% and the exemption to ₹1.25 lakh. The Union Budget 2026 left both unchanged.

What it could mean for unlisted investors

SBI's proposal is about equities in general, and the discussion so far has focused on listed shares. Nobody has proposed changing the tax on unlisted shares sold off-market, so do not assume they would be covered.

The bigger effect for unlisted investors would come at listing. Once a company lists, pre-IPO shares sold on the exchange are generally taxed as listed shares, and the holding period counts from the date you bought them. If the listed LTCG rate went to zero, an investor who bought before the IPO and sold on the exchange after the qualifying period would keep the whole gain. A two-to-three-year holding period would matter less here than for traders, since most pre-IPO investors already hold that long.

Tax rules for your own case depend on how and when you sell, so check with a tax adviser before you plan around any change.

Why capital-market businesses stand closest to the gains

A tax cut on equity gains does not change the profits of a cement maker or a hospital. It does change the economics of companies whose revenue rises with market activity. Three channels matter:

1. Flows. If foreign money comes back and stays longer, the custodians that register and hold assets for FPIs get more assets and more clients.
2. Assets under management. Equity becomes more attractive after tax, so more money moves into equity funds, portfolio management services (PMS) and alternative investment funds (AIFs). Fund managers earn fees on that AUM.
3. Volumes. Higher participation lifts broking, margin funding and clearing activity.

There is one more point specific to PMS. A PMS portfolio is held in the client's own name, so the client pays capital gains tax every time the manager books a profit. Removing LTCG would raise a PMS client's after-tax return directly, which matters for a business like ASK.

Listed companies in this group, such as exchanges, depositories, registrars and listed brokers, would react first. Unlisted prices usually follow with a lag, because trading is thin and dealers adjust quotes slowly. That lag is the opportunity some investors are positioning for, and also the reason prices can move sharply in either direction.

The three unlisted names at a glance

Orbis Financial: the custodian for foreign money

Orbis Financial is one of India's few independent custodians. It handles FPI registration, custody, fund accounting and clearing for FPIs, PMS providers, AIFs and domestic institutions. Of the three, it is the most direct play on foreign flows, which is exactly what SBI's proposal is designed to bring back.

• Assets under custody reached ₹1,68,492 crore at March 31, 2026, up about 18% from ₹1,42,569 crore a year earlier.
• FY26 profit was ₹209.7 crore, roughly flat on FY25's ₹204.6 crore, even though revenue fell about 12% to ₹488 crore.
• The catch is that custody fees are not yet the main earner. In H1 FY26, about 62% of gross revenue came from treasury income and clearing fees, which depend on interest rates and derivatives volumes. Lower rates and SEBI's curbs on index derivatives explain FY26's fall in revenue.
• ICRA upgraded Orbis to A+ (stable) in February 2026. The company has no debt.

At about 21 times FY26 earnings, Orbis trades at roughly half the multiples that listed registrars CAMS (about 40x) and KFin (about 43x) commanded in late July 2026. Those companies are bigger and earn higher returns, so some discount is fair. A sustained return of FPI money is the kind of change that could narrow it.

ASK Investment Managers: a PMS client's tax bill, gone

ASK Investment Managers runs PMS and AIF strategies and a private wealth business for wealthy families. Blackstone has held a majority since 2022, and its vehicle BCP Topco XII holds 63.64%. Total AUM stood at ₹77,530 crore at March 31, 2026.

• The earnings fell sharply in FY26. Revenue fell 16% to ₹869 crore, and profit dropped to ₹97.2 crore from ₹443 crore in FY25. The company has been spending heavily on relationship managers, overseas expansion and the set-up of a mutual fund business.
• The valuation depends on which year you use. At ₹785, ASK trades at about 71 times FY26 earnings but about 15 times FY25 earnings. The price assumes profits recover towards earlier levels.
• The LTCG link is direct. Most of ASK's business is equity PMS and wealth management for clients who pay capital gains tax themselves. A zero LTCG rate would make its products more attractive, especially against mutual funds, which do not pass on tax each time the manager trades.

HDFC Securities: volumes, and increasingly lending

HDFC Securities is HDFC Bank's broking arm, and it reaches the bank's customer base. It would benefit from any increase in retail participation and trading volumes.

• FY26 was weak. Profit fell about 17% to ₹929 crore, and revenue slipped to ₹3,107.5 crore from ₹3,263.8 crore, hurt by the curbs on derivatives trading.
• Q1 FY27 bounced back. In the June 2026 quarter, revenue rose 30% to ₹950 crore and profit rose 28% to ₹297 crore. If that quarter were repeated four times, the annual profit would be about ₹1,190 crore. At ₹7,650 a share, that would put the stock at about 11.5 times earnings.
• The business is changing. Interest income from margin funding and loans is now bigger than fees and commissions. The loan book grew from ₹7,133 crore in March to ₹10,081 crore in June, and debt-to-equity rose to about 5x from 3x a year earlier. Rising funding costs are eating into margins, which is worth watching.

At about 15 times FY26 earnings and 3.8 times book value, HDFC Securities is the cheapest of the three on current profits.

What could go wrong

1. Nothing has been decided. The Finance Minister said she would hear views, not that LTCG will go. The Budget is expected on February 1, 2027.
2. There may be a trade-off. If LTCG is removed, the government could recover the revenue another way. A higher STT, which the Minister also mentioned, would hurt trading volumes and therefore brokers.
3. Tax is not the main reason FPIs are selling. US yields, the dollar, crude prices and the AI rally elsewhere are bigger forces. Removing LTCG may not reverse the outflows on its own.
4. Each company has its own risks. Orbis's earnings depend on rates and derivatives rules. ASK's valuation needs a profit recovery. HDFC Securities is borrowing more to fund its lending.
5. Unlisted-market risk. Prices are indicative dealer quotes, liquidity is limited, and none of the three has filed for an IPO.

How to buy these unlisted shares

Live prices, lot sizes, financials and documents are on each company's share page: Orbis Financial, ASK Investment Managers and HDFC Securities.

1. Request a quote. WhatsApp ShareSaathi or use the form on the share page. You don't need an account to ask.
2. Confirm the lot. At today's prices, the minimum ticket is about ₹34,800 for Orbis (100 shares), ₹78,500 for ASK (100 shares) and ₹76,500 for HDFC Securities (10 shares).
3. Pay and complete KYC. Pay only to ShareSaathi's official bank account, never to an individual. Keep your UTR number and a screenshot of the payment.
4. Receive the shares. They are credited off-market to your NSDL or CDSL demat account.

You can compare other capital-market names, such as NCDEX, on the unlisted share price list.

The bottom line

Removing LTCG on equities is now a real topic for the coming Budget, but it is still a debate, not a decision. If it does happen, the companies that earn from market flows, AUM and volumes would gain first. Orbis is the most direct play on foreign money returning, ASK has the most direct link to its clients' tax bills, and HDFC Securities is the cheapest on current earnings.

None of the three needs the tax change to justify owning it, and none should be bought only on the hope of it. Buy them for the business and the price, and treat a Budget announcement as a possible bonus.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice or tax advice. No change to LTCG tax has been announced, and the tax treatment described is general and may not apply to your situation. Market values, multiples and run-rates are ShareSaathi's own calculations from public data. Unlisted shares are illiquid, prices are indicative dealer quotes, and a listing is never guaranteed. Data as of October 14, 2026. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser and a tax professional before investing.